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New al-Qaeda, new danger
July 12, 2005
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Ahmed Omar Sheik … new hero.
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The London bombers are a new breed of terrorist, writes Ahmed Rashid, one of the world's leading commentators on militant Islam.
It is likely that the London bombings caught Osama bin Laden by surprise as much as they did British intelligence. For he does not know the cells that make up the new al-Qaeda in Europe and which have little in common with the old al-Qaeda.
Whether the bombers were British Muslims who hid their identity so well they were unknown to the intelligence services, or a more seasoned group based on the Continent, they constitute the thinking and practice of a new al-Qaeda that has developed since September 11, 2001.
Its members have not trained in Afghanistan or Iraq and it is unlikely they have been to any of the world's trouble spots. They have never met an old al-Qaeda leader. Their cells are small and highly secretive and some of them carry British passports.
They are not innovators. They wish to emulate the attacks of the old al-Qaeda and they are motivated by more recent perceived symbols of Muslim humiliation - the occupation of Iraq and the US-run jails of Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib.
Organisationally, the new al-Qaeda - represented by the likes of Ahmed Omar Sheik, the British killer of the US journalist Daniel Pearl - is so different from the fanatics who flew into the World Trade Centre and fought the US in Afghanistan, it may not even warrant the name al-Qaeda.
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AdvertisementAl-Qaeda, Arabic meaning The Base, has always encouraged diffusion as long as the basis of its anti-Western ideology is not displaced.
Its tactical brilliance has been its ability to change its characteristics, recruitment patterns and mode of operations more swiftly than any other terrorist group in history. The new al-Qaeda learns rapidly from the failures of past operations.
Europe's intelligence agencies have been busy tracking down the old al-Qaeda. Since September 11, 2001, more than 4000 suspects have been arrested around the world.
MI5 has monitored every group of politically active Muslims and activists arriving in Britain since September 11, while
MI6 has closely watched British Muslims travelling to terrorist-prone countries such as Pakistan or Iraq. However, just as war plans are often drawn up on the basis of the last war, British intelligence will have to throw away its old files and start anew to understand the new al-Qaeda.
The new groups do not gather in London's mosques on a Friday afternoon and attack the West. They do not divulge their activities to even their closest family members. They are also likely to be long-time friends, drastically reducing the possibility of leaks or infiltration by intelligence agencies.
The old al-Qaeda hero is Khalid Sheik Mohammed, who planned the September 11 attacks, recruited the personnel and arranged the logistics while travelling around the world in multiple disguises and womanising in bars. He was arrested in Pakistan in 2003 trying to rebuild his organisation.
The new hero, Ahmed Omar Sheik, is a British Muslim educated at the London School of Economics who is facing a death sentence in a Karachi jail for murdering Pearl in 2002.
After September 11, 2001 Sheik travelled through Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kashmir, inspiring militants to operate independently or to establish a group for a single attack then disperse, as he did when he kidnapped Pearl. Even from behind bars he is still believed to be in touch with militants in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Britain.
Just as bin Laden no longer uses any form of electronic communication, it is likely that the group responsible for the London attacks avoided telephones and email in favour of direct meetings.
The Madrid bombers were undone by their extensive mobile calls. The London group will have avoided making the same mistake.
Telegraph, London
Ahmed Rashid is the author of the bestsellers Taliban and Jihad.
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